NA-246___Has “Something” Already Been Decided?

“The rivals neither themselves want to contest elections nor do they want to let MQM do. They just want postponement of elections”, said MQM`s chief Altaf Hussain.

Honestly speaking, he looks to be very true. The extremely provocation from PTI and Jamat-e-Islami against MQM and the resulted tension in the constituency endorse the same.

Everybody know that Azizabad`s seat NA-246 is one of the strongest seats of MQM which it has been winning since its inception in 1980`s. Even the score board of this constituency prominently reveals that the runners up remained tens of thousands of votes away from MQM`s elected candidate. Yet the Pakistani media and journalists are giving impressions that there would be neck to neck competition with MQM in NA-246 by-elections.

We know that as soon as the by-election`s date was announced, PTI leaders started using harsh words against MQM. They even demanded arrest of Altaf Hussain, sealing and seizing “90”. Making the political atmosphere more tense, they also announced to arrive at Mukka Chowk and enter Jinnah ground. For this purpose, they also warned MQM of facing negative consequences in case of resisting that. Of course, after putting so much fuel to the spark, flames had to go up. Media too did not try to pour water on it, rather did the reverse as a result of which, we witnessed some clash-like situation in the city.

However, MQM leadership from top to bottom played its required role to ease the tension. Despite having emotional association with Mukka Chowk, Jinnah ground and Shohoda-e-Yadgar (Martyrs` memorial), it welcame PTI to its headquarter (90) wholeheartedly. On top of all, Altaf Hussain`s almost nipped the evil in the bud when he cordially invited Imran and Reham Khan to “90” and announced to give gifts to them. That was truly a positive gesture from MQM which made PTI leadership mind its language.

But, very unfortunately, as the PTI-MQM tension went down, news of clash between JI and MQM workers at Liaquatabad and the resulted series of accusations from JI`s leaders came together. It is important to notice that JI had been running its election campaign in the same constituency (NA-246) since the beginning, but not a single unpleasant incident took place. Then why did so tense atmosphere emerge so dramatically between MQM and JI? Furthermore, neither PTI is telling voters about the benefits of its “Naya Pakistan” nor is JI talking about Islamic system. Bothe of them are just targeting MQM.

Though MQM has been doing its possible to avoid any sort of clashes despite so much incitement from its rivals, but the way Pakistani media, some anchorpersons and political analysts are painting what is happening in this constituency indicates that, perhaps, establishment has already decided “something” about NA-246.

Politically speaking, PTI is no longer in a position to get the benefit of the weave that was created in its favor by the establishment. Secondly, its failure to have set a model of “Naya Pakistan” in its under-rule province (KPK) and so much inconsistency (U-turns) in Imran Khan`s political stands have not left any good impression on people all over the country. The less crowd during the recent Karachi visit of Imran Khan was the reflection of PTI`s decreasing popularity in the city. Therefore, PTI is not able to give tough time to MQM in the by-elections.

Regarding Jamat-e-Islami, it has nothing to attract MQM`s voters in this constituency and secondly, its continuous support towards Taliban (killers of over 80,000 people) and declaring them as martyrs in comparison to the army soldiers, badly offended the feelings of the general public. Thus, just like PTI, JI too is not in the position to secure notable votes from this constituency anyway.

Therefore, NA-246 is an easy seat for MQM. None of its rivals can win it unless and until MQM boycotts the election and leaves the field for them. During 1993 elections when MQM was forced to boycott the elections, the winner of this seat could get only about 9,000 votes from here. On the other hand MQM`s candidates for the provincial assembly from the same constituency bagged several times higher votes than the elected MNA. Thus, compelling MQM to boycott the bi-elections could be the intention of its rivals behind bringing its leadership under pressure.

In addition to this, there is one more aspect, which is more important than the previous one, i.e., the fact that the MQM`s upcoming victory in bi-election will surely put a big question mark on the on-going operation by the Rangers and Police. And the attitude of the establishment is indicating that it wants to continue, rather, put more pressure on MQM in the days to come. The continuous media trial, dramatic episodes from the “cells” and the new “actors” appearing on the stage targeting MQM and its leadership one by one prove the same.

Although it was expected that with the on-going operations, “leaked confessions” and heavy hammering through the media on common voters would dent MQM`s image in the public, the way people look fully charged to support MQM have altogether failed all the calculations. Even the MQM`s policy of restrains in response to the intentional attempts to incite clashes badly disappointed the evil forces behind all that. As a result, there remain very few options for MQM`s rivals to adopt against it in the bi-elections, i.e.,:

1-Putting more pressure on MQM leadership so that it feels compelled to boycott the elections,

2-Create more tension to reduce the voting turnout in MQM`s favor so that, if even Kanwar Naveed Jamil wins (as expected), it can be maligned over getting less number of votes than in the past,

3-PTI and JI can decide to boycott accusing MQM of not letting them contest the election so as to make its easy victory controversial.

4-As the last option, any planned violent incident can be made a basis for postponing the election. It can help the establishment take its time to dent MQM more in the name of operation and thus, fertilizing the ground for its rivals.

Nabil Gabol`s meaningful statement about bloodshed, assassination of election candidates and then governor`s rules (of course, by removing Dr. Ishrat-ul-Ibad) can be the reflection of what military establishment may already have decided. Javed Hashmi has also hinted the same while talking about Nabil Gabol`s resignation and Imran Khan being used against MQM.  

Military establishment and their test tube babies must keep this in their mind that MQM and Karachi-ites (Muhajirs) have been facing these foul tactics since 80`s. Thousands of people sacrificed their lives in this establishment`s filthy game, but they did not surrender.

MQM`s workers and voters are entirely different from the rest of the supporters of other parties as they did not fall in MQM`s lap as a result of any weave maliciously created by the establishment in order to help its favorite party or “leader” come into power. Instead, they made the decision to support MQM after themselves having faced the on-going injustice and the reality of Altaf Hussain and MQM. That is the reason why MQM`s popularity could not be dented even after so many politically and ethnically-motivated operations against it. Therefore, come what may, MQM will retain its seat with a heavy margin….Insha Allah